But with mass shootings becoming agonizingly routine, and Americans demanding action after 17 Florida teenagers and faculty members were murdered on Valentine’s Day, this election may be more like 1994, when an assault weapons ban thrust guns to the fore.
“This is a tipping point,” said Gov. Jay Inslee of Washington State, the head of the Democratic Governors Association and one of those lawmakers who lost his House seat after voting for the 1994 ban. “I think what people are looking for is more independent thought and less slavish devotion to the N.R.A.”
On the Republican side, Gov. Bill Haslam of Tennessee, who runs the Republican Governors Association but does not have to run again, gave his party a blunt warning about the political challenge staring it in the face: voters “particularly among suburban women,” are mobilizing for gun control.
“When you have something put into stark dramatization like Florida, then I think that gets people’s attention. And they say, ‘There’s got to be certain things we can do,’” said Mr. Haslam, who called for raising the age limit on gun purchases over the N.R.A.’s opposition.
The political peril for each party lies in divergent parts of the country: For Republicans, ignoring voters’ fears about gun violence could take a pronounced toll in the House, where the party is defending several dozen districts around major cities — including Philadelphia, Chicago, Los Angeles and San Diego — where Mr. Trump is deeply disliked and the N.R.A. has little following to speak of.
On the Democratic side, it is in the more rural states — key to Democrats’ hopes in Senate and governors’ races — where Democratic supporters of gun rights have scrambled to react. In some cases, the rapidly shifting conversation on guns has collided with primary elections that party leaders like Mr. Inslee are hoping do not grow too nasty.
In 2018, Democrats’ ability to compete in statewide elections in the Midwest and in the South may depend on candidates’ ability to court gun owners, many of whom fiercely oppose new regulations. Until recently, liberal Democrats largely tolerated such overtures as a political necessity. Just last week, Conor Lamb, a Democrat running a tenacious special election campaign in a conservative House district in southwestern Pennsylvania, rebuffed calls for new gun laws after the Parkland shooting.
But the grim spectacle of students, churchgoers and concert attendees being killed by individuals wielding military-style semiautomatic rifles has mobilized gun control advocates in a new way — and pushed even red- and purple-state Democrats to move abruptly in their direction.
Some who have in the past sought to placate the N.R.A. are now attempting to make amends with the left: In Minnesota, Representative Tim Walz, a Democratic candidate for governor embroiled in a contested primary, posted an apologetic note on Facebook after the Parkland shooting, endorsing an assault weapons ban and acknowledging “criticisms from those who take issue with my past campaign contributions from the N.R.A.”
Mr. Walz, a military veteran from rural southern Minnesota whom the N.R.A. has endorsed in the past, said he is now determined to “get the N.R.A. out of the way, and get us to the common-sense solutions that we all agree on.”
But his Democratic opponents see an opening.
“It has become a huge issue,” said Rebecca Otto, the Democratic state auditor. “The only thing that has changed about Congressman Walz is he’s now running for governor.”
In South Carolina, State Representative James Smith, the front-runner for the Democratic nomination for governor, has faced attacks in the primary race from a businessman, Phil Noble, for having received an “A” rating from the N.R.A. for several years. In Ohio, Mr. Cordray unveiled a more stringent gun violence platform last week amid criticism from Mr. Kucinich of his past relationship with the N.R.A.
Mr. Cordray said in an interview that the Parkland shooting had prompted a reassessment of existing policies even among people who back broader gun rights. He has called for greatly expanded background checks and said lawmakers should “rethink” regulation of assault weapons, stopping short of demanding an outright ban. Mr. Cordray also cautioned that there are many voters in rural areas who “feel strongly about the Second Amendment and their right to have guns for hunting, for self-defense.”
In Florida, Gwen Graham, whose primary political calling card has been her ability to win over Republican voters, wasted no time calling for new gun regulations after the Parkland shooting, including a suspension on sales of AR-15 rifles. But Ms. Graham, who previously represented a conservative stretch of the state’s panhandle in Congress, will surely face scrutiny in her primary for making more pro-gun comments when she was a congressional candidate facing opposition from the N.R.A.
Even before the Florida shooting, however, the ranks of staunchly N.R.A.-aligned Democrats had dwindled to the point of near-extinction. After the party’s losses in the 2010 and 2014 elections, only a small group of Democrats from rural, solidly Republican areas remain in Congress. Of the five Senate Democrats who voted against a 2013 bill to expand background checks for gun purchasers, just one — Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota — is still in office.
But even in Texas, which has a gun culture that can be traced to its founding, the tide in the party is running clearly in the direction of gun restrictions. Representative Beto O’Rourke of Texas, a Democrat challenging Senator Ted Cruz, acknowledged his support for banning assault weapons would probably not poll well.
But, he said, “You’ve got to do what’s right, and people need to know where you are on these issues.”
On the Republican side, uniformity on the gun issue has been just as pronounced. Only three Senate Republicans still in office voted for the 2013 background-check bill, drafted by Senators Joe Manchin III, Democrat of West Virginia, and Patrick J. Toomey, Republican of Pennsylvania, after the December 2012 massacre at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, Conn.
Yet the Florida shooting has plainly caused some Republicans to rethink the issue, or at least to buy time until they can assess whether this latest outcry will fade.
In New Jersey, Jay Webber, a Republican state legislator who is running to succeed Representative Rodney Frelinghuysen, a retiring Republican, said voters are demanding an “open” conversation on guns. “There’s certainly a desire to do something,” said Mr. Webber, who has been backed by gun-rights activists in the past.
But a number of Republicans facing contested primaries and courting the right have lurched in the other direction, in some cases even targeting their ostensible business allies. In Georgia, for instance, Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle, a Republican candidate for governor, threatened to retaliate against Delta Air Lines for terminating a discount deal with N.R.A. members.
A handful of congressional Republicans have made more determined gestures in the direction of gun regulation over the past two weeks. Representative Brian Mast of Florida, a Republican from near Parkland, and Carlos Curbelo, an endangered Republican in Miami, endorsed an assault weapons ban. Five Republicans from competitive districts are sponsoring a Democratic bill to authorize federal research into gun violence.
Sometimes, said Gov. Ralph S. Northam of Virginia, who ran unapologetically on gun control and routed his Republican rival last year, “You have to be slapped in the face.”
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